From http://www.oursenate.com:

At last, it is October, and you know what that means. Monthly update time.

Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994

John McCain, always surprisingly willing to drink the Kool-Aid, has endorsed Kyl in no uncertain terms, and will be heading his reelection campaign. Luckily for Democrats, Jim Pederson, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and one of the wealthiest men in the Grand Canyon State, is running. Pederson should run a well-financed campaign, and Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, a heavy favorite for reelection herself, plans to pull out all the stops.

California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election

Feinstein retains a healthy approval rating and is respected as a voice of moderation. No prominent Republican is running, as all attention is on saving Gov. Gropenegger...oh, sorry, Schwarzenegger.

Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988

Sorry, liberal blogs. Lieberman has sealed the deal.

Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000

Big, big yawn. If Carper doesn't get 60% it will be shocking.

Keep reading below the fold...

And finally, our dramatic conclusion.

Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994

No polls have been released for a few weeks, but it is safe to assume Santorum is still struggling for air. Every single poll has shown State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., the shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, leading Santorum, usually by a good margin. Most D.C. "insiders" still cling to calling this a toss-up, but when an incumbent can't even crack 42% against a challenger who hasn't even begun really campaigning, that is not a toss-up. Barring a major change of dynamic, Casey will win this, probably by more than 7 points. Then again, once the Republican slime machine gets going, you never know.

Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999

Chafee is sweating right now, and if he's not he should be. Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey looks to be challenging Chafee in the Republican primary, endangering GOP chances of keeping this seat in heavily Democratic Rhode Island. The Rhode Island GOP is not happy with Chafee, and Laffey could scare Chafee into spending lots of money just in the primary. Even if Chafee were to win renomination, that would leave him financially drained going into November, and he will already be facing a tough reelection against either U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse or Secretary of State Matt Brown. Chafee is polling in the low 40's against either Democrat, and his renomination battle is hardly a slam-dunk. After Pennsylvania, this is the second most endangered Republican seat.

The rest below the fold...

Part II begins.

Minnesota (OPEN) - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000

Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the heavyweight for the Democratic, or rather the DFL, nomination, and she is raising money at a good pace, but I have a few worries about her chances. For one, if she wins the primary she will be facing a well-financed Republican (Rep. Mark Kennedy). And for another, is she prepared to combat the "Twin Cities liberal" label? I don't know, but we all seem to agree that while Minnesota may be snowing hard during the election, it will host one of the nation's hottest races. Some things are going for Klobuchar: President Bush is unpopular nationwide, and the numbers in Minnesota reflect this; Kennedy, by the way, votes 98% of the time for the Bush agenda. Also, the Twin Cities will probably see a lively get-out-the-vote effort from both sides. So no matter how you look at this race, it is too early to make any predictions.

Mississippi - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988

Lott is surprisingly popular given what a fool he is, and sadly may benefit politically from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina.

Missouri - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election

Finally, we have some good news out of Missouri. State Auditor Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, will be challenging Talent. Given the unpopularity of President Bush and Republican Gov. Matt Blunt in the Show Me State, this race has got to be considered competitive. Of course, Talent is not as unpopular as Bush or Blunt, and the state has been trending Republican for a while, but a new Rasmussen poll shows the Senator and McCaskill tied at 46%, so this looks like a hot one to me.

The rest below the fold...

Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994

Jim Pederson looks on course to run a well-financed challenge. An August poll (which appears to be partisan, so take it with a grain of salt) showed Kyl leading Pederson 44% to 29%, down from a 46-17 lead earlier. Pederson is not campaigning yet, but Arizonans are clearly not wholly sold on the incumbent, and with Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano expecting a strong reelection, there may be some coattails to latch onto.

California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election

It's looking like the only hot race in California next year will be at the top of the ballot, where unpopular Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be fighting harder than he ever had to in the movies.

Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988

With BRAC saving Connecticut's Groton submarine base from the chopping board, Lieberman has all but sealed up his reelection.

Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000

Carper is among the nation's more popular Senators, representing a Democratic state, with no Republican challengers of any note.

Read the rest below the fold...

From OurSenate:

"September 6, 2005--Republican Senator Jim Talent is tied with Democrat Claire McCaskill in the first Rasmussen Reports poll for this Election 2006 match-up. This early election poll finds both candidates attracting 46% of the vote.

..."

McCaskill has several things going for her. First and most importantly, for a challenger to be tied with an incumbent is never good news for the incumbent. Second, she is doing well with two very important swing age groups: youth and seniors. And third, there is a gender gap, which is crucial for Democrats to win elections. If women are too 50/50, Democrats always lose because men are more strongly Republican. So this must mean that McCaskill has a clear edge with Missouri women, something she didn't enjoy in her 2004 gubernatorial race. In short, prepare for a bloody, expensive, competitive race, right in the heartland of America.

Read the whole thing at OurSenate

If you read DailyKos our OurSenate you may have already seen this, but here goes. I've got my entire Senate 2006 analysis from the month of July below the fold...enjoy (I hope)!

I have just joined a blog that was started in January...a very good blog. It's called OurSenate (www.oursenate.com). On it, I will be posting updates on the Senate races of 2006 regularly (almost every day). It also covers news and politics of the upper chamber (committees, upcoming votes, etc.). Because it is still fairly new, not many people know about it. Many of you do know, however, of OurCongress, which is simply the House equivalent of OurSenate. Both focus mainly on the upcoming midterm elections and the politics of each congressional chamber.

OurSenate

Check it out...even for 5 minutes. Read a few entries, and let me know what you think. I did not found it, but I am excited by it, and OurSenate will be faithfully tracking the workings and elections of the Senate as long as the internet will permit. I'd also appreciate it if MyDD linked to OurSenate.

Anyhow, take a look. If you hate it, tell me so and tell me why. Blogs are for all of us. Long live MyDD!

What's the difference between a so-called New Democrat and the DLC?