If we had not gone into Iraq in 2003, Latin America would probably be our biggest international concern right now. Not only is this huge and fast-growing continent right below us, but we are deeply connected both economically and politically with these countries. If we weren't, would Reagan have ever interfered in Nicaragua? Would we give a #$^% about Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro?

These elections are an important international event, and even more important for United States interests. So, with that, here's a roundup:

Honduras - November 27, 2005

The National Party, considered right of center, lost to the opposition Liberals. The new leader will be Mel Zelaya, a Liberal, but one who eked into office with less than 50% of the vote. The narrow Liberal win should mean cautious and divided politics over the next few years in this country.

Venezuela parliamentary elections - December 4, 2005

The extreme-left Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, had a huge victory for his party when they won nearly every seat in the legislature. This was partly due to election boycotting by other parties, but partly due to Chavez's popularity. The tightened Chavez grip on the legislature could mean even more tense conditions between Venezuela and the U.S.

Bolivia - December 18, 2005

Chavez ally and far-left coca activist Evo Morales won a convincing plurality to become Bolivia's first Amerindian president. While Bolivians hope for lessened poverty and more labor-friendly policies with Morales, the hard-left victory will mean a more antagonistic relationship with the U.S., just as with Chavez in Venezuela.

Chile - December 11 first-round; January 15, 2006 runoff

Yesterday's runoff provided a 53-47 victory for Michelle Bachelet, soon-to-be the first female president of Chile, and leader of the center-left coalition that has led Chile since the end of Pinochet in 1990. Chile is one of the few moderate success stories in South America, and satisfaction with the current state of affairs is probably what provided Bachelet's victory. While Bachelet is a Socialist, the government should be more "traditionally liberal" and less extreme than its counterparts in Venezuela or Bolivia.

And next, the upcoming ones.

Costa Rica - February 5, 2006

Former president Oscar Arias, of the National Liberation Party, is considered the frontrunner. While president in 1987, Arias won the Nobel Peace Prize. His party is considered a socialist one, so I'm assuming leadership under Arias would put Costa Rica in a left-leaning political mold, but I don't know enough about Costa Rica politics.

Haiti - February 7, 2006

Elections here should be turbulent and dangerous. My personal bet would be on a leftist winning in this poverty-torn country, but all bets are off when the foundation of a country is so precarious.

Colombia legislative elections - March 12, 2006

Legislative elections here should cancel out Venezuela, as President Alvaro Uribe, a solid conservative, is quite popular. Colombia is traditionally a much more right-leaning country than some of its neighbors, possibly because of the "war on drugs" that is so prevalent here. Anyhow, Uribe's grip should tighten.

El Salvador parliamentary elections - March 12, 2006

On the same day as Colombia, El Salvador will be having its parliamentary elections. I don't know much about the outlook, but I do know that like Colombia, El Salvador is a more conservative country run by the right-wing. Whether that helps the incumbents or not, I don't know.

Peru - April 9, 2006

The election here is closely divided. Lourdes Flores, of the right-of-center National Unity, may be the frontrunner, but is only barely ahead of leftist Ollanta Humala and/or former president Alberto Fujimori. WIDE OPEN.

Dominican Republic parliamentary elections - May 16, 2006

Who knows.

Colombia - May 28, 2006

Uribe should be reelected. I think.

Mexico - July 2, 2006

This could be the most important Latin American election of 2006 for the U.S. A tight three-way race is developing between the conservative PAN's Felipe Calderon, the left-leaning PRI's Roberto Madrazo, and the leftist PRD's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador, the former Mayor of Mexico City, may be the frontrunner, but only by a little. After six years of Bush-friendly rule in Mexico, it will be very interesting to see what happens here.

Brazil - October 1, 2006

Like Mexico, extremely important to watch. The incumbent is left-winger Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, who seemed a shoo-in until widespread corruption in the party ranks took the headlines. Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra is Lula's toughest opponent, and the race is neck-in-neck. If Serra wins, analysts may consider it a sign of increasing centrism in Latin American politics.

Ecuador - October 15, 2006

Wide open. I can't find any info.

Nicaragua - November 27, 2006

This will be very interesting. Former president Daniel Ortega (yes, that one) is one of the leading candidates, again running for the Sandinista Party. Results are not certain, but the mere fact that Ortega could win suggests there is dissatisfaction with the conservative government.

and finally...

Venezuela - December 2006

Yawn. Chavez will be back, and probably with 80% of the vote too!