Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994
Like many Democrats, State Treasurer Bob Casey has lost a little bit of ground in the last month according to a new poll, but he still retains a good lead. Santorum is truly endangered, more than any other Senator in 2006, and Casey is the only challenger in the country who is consistently leading an incumbent. But Santorum will raise more money and has a reputation as a fierce campaigner. Watch this one.
Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999
Chafee is walking a political tightrope. He needs to keep Republicans in his corner so that he can win a tough primary against conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. But because Rhode Island is one of the most anti-Bush, Democratic states in the Union, he needs to keep support from Independents and Democrats. He is trying hard to do all of this, but it seems to me that he can only survive so long in this kind of limbo. The problem is that he is too moderate to keep the Republican base happy, and that may depress GOP turnout. Yet he is too Bush-happy for most Ocean State Democrats, many of whom backed him in 2000. And on top of everything else, despite a healthy approval rating his polling numbers hardly indicate a slam-dunk against either Laffey or the two Democratic candidates, U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse and Secretary of State Matt Brown. To paraphrase the immortal words of former Texas Gov. Ann Richards: "Poor Lincoln. He can't help it. He was born with spaghetti in his spine."
Keep reading below the fold...
This race itself has been deadly quiet for quite a while. But outside events in Tennessee are hardly so. Frist himself is being investigated for corruption, while Republican Senate candidate Ed Bryant apparently has close, close financial ties with indicted House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Republican of Texas. All of this Republican scandal goes on while Rep. Harold Ford, the major Democratic candidate, waits. Ford is the heavy favorite for his party's nomination, but the Republican field is a complete tossup between Bryant, former Rep. Van Hilleary, and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the "moderate" in the field (yeah right). Despite all of the GOP bloodletting, I would be surprised to see Ford win barring a Democratic tsunami. It's not that he's a bad candidate; rather, he is considered one of the bright young stars in Tennessee. But polls just don't indicate this will be as top-notch as Pennsylvania, Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio, Florida, or Montana. Part of that is the rapid "redding" of the South, and part of it is low national interest so far. But this may become as hot as a Memphis summer by next year.
Texas - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - elected in 1993 special election
Amazingly, Hutchison is considered Texas' more moderate Senator. Tsk, tsk.
Utah - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R) - elected in 1976
Here's a tough mental exercise: find one Senator who could possibly be safer than Orrin Hatch.
Vermont (OPEN) - Solid Independent
Incumbent: Jim Jeffords (I) - elected in 1988
Republicans are trying to smear Rep. Bernie Sanders, Vermont's other Independent in Congress and the heavy favorite to win this seat, but it's not working. Sanders has strong backing from Independents and Democrats, and even some of Vermont's moderate Republicans. If he doesn't win this easily it will be quite an upset.
Virginia - Solid Republican
Incumbent: George Allen (R) - elected in 2000
What a loser. That is, winner.
Washington - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D) - elected in 2000
A GOP poll shows Cantwell leading former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick 49-39. In English, that translates to her polling in the low 50's. That's a good position to start from given that she was looking pretty vulnerable at the beginning of the year. But McGavick has a load of money and there are more popular Senators in this country than Cantwell. This kind of mirrors Arizona: wealthy challenger, tepidly well-liked incumbent, politically hostile state for the challenger. I don't expect a blowout, but Cantwell should get a decent reelection unless she really screws up.
West Virginia - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Robert Byrd (D) - elected in 1958
In the final NRSC embarrassment, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the only Republican other than President Bush of any real success in West Virginia, announced today that she will not run. I know our Republican friends hate to hear this, but Byrd is now a shoo-in. Yes, Bush won West Virginia 56-43 in 2004. And yes, Byrd is highly critical of Bush's policies. But his approval rating is in the 60's, and more importantly his name is on practically every building in the state. No Republican wins this seat until Byrd retires or dies.
Wisconsin - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) - elected in 1988
Crickets chirping.
Wyoming - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Craig Thomas (R) - elected in 1994
I was wrong when I implied that Hatch is the safest Senator. Craig Thomas is the safest Senator.
So, basically the GOP is not doing so great. They are on the edge of losing Pennsylvania, with Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Ohio vulnerable. Their best pickup opportunity is Minnesota, but other than that it's bleak for them. Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, and Washington are leaning Democratic, and Nebraska is looking unlikely to flip. With Hoeven and Capito out, North Dakota and West Virginia are out of the picture. If I were to predict today, I'd say the Democrats pick up Pennsylvania easily and Missouri and Ohio narrowly, barely losing Minnesota, for a net gain of two seats. But we still have 13 months to go before November 7, 2006. So I'll hold back.
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