Minnesota (OPEN) - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000
Some liberal bloggers eagerly label this "lean Democratic", but that is hardly reasonable. Yes, President Bush is unpopular in the Midwest. Yes, Minnesota showed signs of Democratic trends in 2004. But the Democratic field is messy and hardly breathtaking, while Republicans have gone all-out for Rep. Mark Kennedy, crowning him their next Senator from Minnesota. Definitely, this is the Republicans' best pickup opportunity for the Senate in 2006, by far, as Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Washington all lean towards staying in Democratic hands. But nothing is known until the DFL convention, in which Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the frontrunner. A Klobuchar vs. Kennedy race would likely involve mudslinging and a lot of national attention. Klobuchar has a reputation as a good speaker, but Kennedy is a "rising star" in Minnesota politics and will be rested and backed by the Rove machine. He will likely take the opportunity to label Klobuchar a Twin Cities liberal, etc. She has a good background as a prosecutor, but in the end is she too wonkish for suburban and exurban Minnesotans? This whole race is definitely the biggest "who knows?" of the Senate contests.
Mississippi - Solid Republican if Lott runs, Likely Republican otherwise
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988
If Lott runs for reelection, he wins. It's as simple as that. But Hurricane Katrina has hurt him financially, and rumors are spreading that he might retire. My guess is he runs, keeping this one solid for the GOP. But if not, Democrats have a deep, deep bench in Mississippi.
Keep reading below the jump...
State Auditor Claire McCaskill, the Democrats' brightest star in Missouri, is running. If this were 2004, she would have little hope. But with Republican Gov. Matt Blunt and President Bush both unpopular in the Show Me State, it could be just the right environment for a Democrat to be the next Senator from Missouri. Talent's support is an inch deep, with decent but un-enthralling approval ratings. And if McCaskill campaigns well she could easily convince voters that she is the better voice for Missouri in the Senate. Talent is, after all, a Bush lackey extraordinaire. The only poll to date, by Rasmussen, showed the two tied at 46%.
Montana - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Conrad Burns (R) - elected in 1988
Burns is highly corrupt, and the resurgent Montana Democrats are hoping an anti-Washington environment in 2006 could be enough to send State Senate President Jon Tester, or State Auditor John Morrison, to the U.S. Senate. Tester is the favorite of the grassroots. Morrison is the favorite of the DC establishment. It's a competitive primary, and both candidates are polling about equally well (or badly) against Burns. Burns is pulling around 50% so far, but he tends to get weaker and weaker as November approaches (see: Election 2000).
Nebraska - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
Like Florida and Michigan, an embarrassment of NRSC recruitment. With former Gov. Mike Johanns now the Secretary of Agriculture and Rep. Tom Osborne running for Governor, no top-notch Nebraska Republican is willing to take on popular conservative Democrat Ben Nelson. 65% of Nebraskans voted for President Bush in 2004, but Nelson has strong approval ratings, and three Republicans, all weak, are challenging him: 2000 nominee Don Stenberg (whom Nelson defeated 51-49 in an open seat contest with President Bush winning Nebraska in a landslide), former state GOP chair David Kramer, and former Ameritrade CEO Peter Ricketts. Don't ask me which one is strongest; they all seem like losing candidates to me.
Nevada - Solid Republican
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) - elected in 2000
Ensign and Nevada's senior Senator, Democrat Harry Reid, have agreed to protect each other. How convenient. Update: as of today, Jack Carter, son of Jimmy Carter, is running. I analyzed a possible Ensign/Carter matchup at the OurSenate homepage.
New Jersey (probably OPEN) - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000
Expect Corzine to narrowly win the gubernatorial race on November 8 of this year. He will appoint a successor (probably Rep. Bob Menendez, but maybe Rep. Rob Andrews or Rep. Frank Pallone) at the end of the year or in early 2006. That successor will seek reelection when Corzine's term is up in '06. If there is no major battle, the Chosen One should breeze through primary season to face Republican State Sen. Tom Kean in November. If there is a battle, expect this one to get really interesting. For now, Corzine isn't yet Governor, and New Jersey leans Democratic.
New Mexico - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) - elected in 1982
Thank God Bingaman decided to seek a fifth term. Both he and Gov. Bill Richardson should be strong favorites for reelection.
New York - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Hillary Clinton (D) - elected in 2000
Continuing the series of NRSC missteps, we have the Empire State. They couldn't get Giuliani. They couldn't get Colin Powell. They couldn't get Pataki. They couldn't even get Bill O'Reilly. No, instead they have the conservative mayor of Yonkers, a relative of Richard Nixon, and the flawed D.A. of Westchester County. Sen. Clinton, meanwhile, maintains impressive approval ratings. And then, New York Republicans faces a huge battle trying to keep the governor's mansion and State Senate.
North Dakota - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) - elected in 1986, then in 1992 special election
In the latest upset for Liddy Dole, Gov. John Hoeven, who was expected by many to challenge Conrad, and would have stood at least 50-50 odds of defeating him, announced on Friday he will not run. Ouch. They were so hoping to "Daschle" Kent Conrad. Perhaps next time, Karl. For now, Conrad's approval rating is near 70%, and Hoeven was widely considered the GOP's only hope against North Dakota's senior Senator.
Ohio - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994
Update: as of yesterday, Paul Hackett is officially running. Hackett is, of course, the Iraq war veteran who mustered 48% in August's special election in Southwest Ohio's heavily Republican 2nd Congressional District. DeWine, with his popularity slightly above 40%, is in for a hell of a race. But I'll hold my tongue until it's official.
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